Tempering expectations from new Indonesia-Australia defense treaty

The recent discussions surrounding the new defense treaty between Indonesia and Australia highlight both opportunities and limitations in their strategic relationship. Here’s a detailed look at the implications of this treaty and what it means for both countries:

Overview of the New Defense Treaty

On August 20, 2024, Indonesia and Australia finalized negotiations on a significant defense agreement, described by Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles as the “most significant agreement” between the two nations. This treaty aims to enhance joint exercises and interoperability between their defense forces. Despite the excitement, it’s crucial to temper expectations and understand the treaty’s scope.

Key Points of the Treaty

1. Enhanced Cooperation:
   • Joint Exercises: The treaty will likely facilitate more ambitious joint military exercises.
   • Interoperability: Improved coordination between Indonesian and Australian defense forces is expected.
2. Limited Scope:
   • Not a Military Alliance: The treaty is not intended to create a formal military alliance.
   • Strategic Divergence: There are notable differences in how Indonesia and Australia view regional threats, particularly concerning China.

Strategic Divergence

1. Indonesia’s Perspective:
   • Non-Alignment: Indonesia maintains a non-aligned stance and avoids choosing sides in the US-China rivalry.
   • China’s Role: While Indonesia acknowledges China’s economic importance and potential military threats, it does not see China as an immediate military threat. The focus is more on economic relations and regional neutrality.
   • US Relations: Indonesia values US support in military training and equipment but does not seek a heightened US military presence in Southeast Asia. Historical grievances and a desire to avoid provoking regional powers contribute to this cautious stance.
2. Australia’s Perspective:
   • China’s Threat: Australia views China as a growing strategic threat, influencing its defense strategies and alliances, including the AUKUS partnership.
   • US Alliance: Australia sees its alliance with the US as crucial for its security, particularly in countering China’s influence in the region. The recent National Defense Strategy reflects a focus on deterring or defeating potential threats from China.

Implications of the Treaty

1. Possible Areas of Cooperation:
   • Education and Training: Opportunities for joint military training and educational exchanges.
   • Technological Exchange: Potential for collaboration on defense technology and industrial partnerships.
   • Humanitarian Assistance: Joint efforts in disaster relief and humanitarian missions.
   • Security Issues: Cooperation on counter-terrorism, anti-piracy, and peacekeeping operations.
2. Regional Impact:
   • Strengthening Bilateral Relations: Closer defense ties between Jakarta and Canberra will likely enhance mutual security and contribute to regional stability.
   • No Military Alliance: The treaty’s limitations mean that, despite increased cooperation, it will not lead to a formal military alliance or a shift in Indonesia’s non-aligned foreign policy.

Conclusion

The upcoming Indonesia-Australia defense treaty represents a significant step in deepening bilateral defense relations. However, it’s important to recognize its limitations and the strategic divergences between the two countries. While the treaty will enhance cooperation in several areas, it will not result in a military alliance or fundamentally alter Indonesia’s foreign policy stance.

For more insights, you might find the following articles helpful:

1. “Indonesia-Australia Defense Pact: What to Expect”
   Source: Jakarta Globe
   An overview of the treaty and its expected impact on defense relations.
2. “Strategic Divergence: Indonesia and Australia’s Defense Perspectives”
   Source: The Jakarta Post
   Analysis of the differing strategic viewpoints of Indonesia and Australia.
3. “China’s Role in Indonesia-Australia Defense Relations”
   Source: Kompas
   Examines how China’s influence affects the defense strategies of Indonesia and Australia.
4. “The Future of Indonesia-Australia Defense Cooperation”
   Source: Tempo
   A look into potential areas for future collaboration under the new treaty.

These sources will provide a broader context and additional details on the defense agreement and its implications for both countries.

To better understand the implications and nuances of the new Indonesia-Australia defense treaty, here are several relevant articles and resources that explore related themes and provide deeper insights:

Relevant Articles and Resources

1. “Understanding the New Indonesia-Australia Defense Agreement”
   Source: Jakarta Globe
   This article provides a comprehensive overview of the new defense agreement between Indonesia and Australia, outlining the main objectives, areas of cooperation, and potential impacts on regional security.
2. “Strategic Implications of Indonesia-Australia Defense Pact”
   Source: The Jakarta Post
   This piece explores the strategic motivations behind the defense treaty and how it fits into the broader regional security landscape, including the implications for the US-China dynamic.
3. “China’s Influence on Indonesia-Australia Defense Relations”
   Source: Kompas
   An analysis of how China’s growing influence and strategic competition with the US affect the defense policies and cooperation between Indonesia and Australia.
4. “Indonesia’s Foreign Policy and Defense Strategy: Balancing Acts”
   Source: Tempo
   This article examines Indonesia’s approach to foreign policy and defense, highlighting the challenges and strategic calculations that shape its relations with major powers like China and the US.
5. “Australia’s Defense Strategy: A Response to Regional Threats”
   Source: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
   A detailed look at Australia’s defense strategy, including its focus on countering China’s influence and how the new treaty aligns with its broader strategic objectives.
6. “The Role of Indonesia-Australia Defense Cooperation in Regional Stability”
   Source: East Asia Forum
   This article discusses how the defense cooperation between Indonesia and Australia could contribute to regional stability and security, considering the current geopolitical climate.
7. “US-Indonesian Relations and Strategic Interests”
   Source: The Diplomat
   Provides context on the US-Indonesian relationship, highlighting the historical and current security cooperation aspects that influence Indonesia’s stance on external military alliances.
8. “Impact of the AUKUS Pact on Southeast Asia: Perspectives from Indonesia”
   Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
   Examines how the AUKUS agreement affects Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia, and the potential implications for regional security dynamics.

These articles and resources will offer a more nuanced understanding of the new Indonesia-Australia defense treaty, its potential impacts, and the broader strategic context in which it is situated. They provide a detailed look at the various factors influencing the defense cooperation between the two nations and how these fit into the regional security environment.